What happens tomorrow?
Digg's Kevin Rose has been sharing what he says is insider info (which he admits could be pure rumors) about what Apple is about to announce at their special "Let's Rock!" event tomorrow. Updates to the iPod Nano and iPod Touch are certainly overdue (though it will create a twinge of pain for me when my 32 GB Touch is no longer the Bleeding Edge of iPod coolness). An update to iTunes makes perfect sense, though I was more expecting Apple to split off a very basic "iTunes Lite" which was just a CD ripper and database as a tiny, ultraclean app, and create "iTunes Plus" with all the iTunes Store/movie rental operations as well as a major expansion of social/community network functionality. (And that could still happen). The iTunes Genius concept seems very cool, though far short of the iTunes subscription model that had been widely predicted, then just as widely dismissed not long ago. And — oh, yes! — a nifty new visualizer.
What Kevin summarizes in his predictions, however, doesn't seem quite enough. Apple has quietly told a number of prominent journalists on the far coast that they really should make the trip out to Cupertino for this one, lest they miss something truly significant. That's a real invitation to some bad press about a "disappointing" announcement — unless you are ready to deliver something that's going to create above a Richter 6.0 shakeup. Kevin's predictions, while cool, are unlikely to produce anything more than Richter 4.0. (Light — Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely.) I'm not saying it has to be like the Richter 8.0 iPhone announcement, or even the Richter 7.0 iPhone App Store announcement. But it needs more if they are strongly suggesting the east coasters really need to make the cross-country trip.
So if there's more, what will it be? There are a lot of guesses:
- iTunes Music Subscriptions — I think this is highly unlikely, given that I doubt the major record labels would have stayed so cool about this right up until 24 hours before announcement day. This could not help but leak. I'm not sure I want to see this, really — at least not the way others have done it and are doing it now. I won't rule out Apple finding a revolutionary approach to subscription music that satisfies both the "own my music" and "rent my music" crowds — but not without first creating a lot of chatter within the major music distributors.
- Apple TV/video services major expansion — From your blog to Steve's ears, Peter Magnusson! Oh, I'd love to see a big Apple TV announcement, but I don't seriously expect this either. I would not be surprised to see Apple offer HD movie sales on top of their current HD rentals, and a new deal that allowed same-day rental, download and DVD releases is possible. A major deal to bring Hulu or NetFlix through the Apple TV interface would be big news. And a new expanded Apple TV box like the one Magnusson talks about would be bigger still. But it is obvious from the announcement title and style that this event is going to center mostly around music, not video. (Alas...)
- Extreme upgrade for iPod Touch — A Touch with GPS, camera, internal speakers, 64GB of Flash memory (or even a hard drive) and other major hardware upgrades would be bigger news than a new Nano and a cheaper Touch alone. Again, though, not quite enough. The one innovation that could be added that would rock the world would be a Kindle-style cell-network connect-anywhere capability that is paid for as part of the purchase price (or very, very cheaply, perhaps as part of a MobileMe membership). That would be one kick-ass product (and would motivate the CouchGuy to trade in his own Touch, where lesser upgrades mentioned earlier would not). If this is indeed primarily an iPod Touch-centered announcement, this would be where it would have to go to create the necessary level of market excitement.
- Touch-based tablet — A lot of people still think this is inevitable (the CouchGuy included), though most think they are not quite ready to take this concept to market. This would certainly produce the high-Richter shakeup, as the MacBook Air did. I rate this a long-shot, but I can't rule it out. Steve is certainly capable of announcing a maxi-Touch (or a cross between a maxi-Touch and a mini-Air) out of the blue. Combine that with the Kindle-like cell-network connect-anywhere deal above and you would hit Richter 8.0, easy.
- Steve Jobs retires — This would be Richter 9.0 or more. (Great — Devastating in areas several thousand miles across.) Bad news, certainly, no matter how Steve would spin it. I sure hope this isn't true, as the only thing that is likely to pry Jobs out of the top seat right now would be a major downturn in his health. I think such an announcement would be more likely as a separate, low-key matter, though. This is one blockbuster Apple rumor that I sure hope is all wrong. It is a slight possibility, though, which taints the tingle of anticipation preceding tomorrow's announcement with fear as well as ecstasy.
Posted by Guy McLimore at 9/8/2008 2:18 PM 
Categories: iPhone,Opinion,Apple TV,iTunes Store,Rumors,HDTV,iPod,iTunes
Categories: iPhone,Opinion,Apple TV,iTunes Store,Rumors,HDTV,iPod,iTunes
Ooh! I've got it! Retirement it is! "Let's Rock" symbolizes Job's gravestone (should have seen it when his obituary was released) or the iXcaliber sword in the stone that Arthur (Ives) needs to pull out. It also fits with the "stocks will temporarily drop this fall while we undergo a product transition..." comment from this summer. Top product is Jobs, transition to Ives will cause investors to be wary.
Brilliant! And framed as a party -- "Let's rock!"
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