The Best of All Possible Worlds (?)
My Boxee/Apple TV 3.2 dilemma from the last post combined with a nice post in 9to5Mac from Michael Kahn to get me thinking about finding a way to have everything I want at my fingertips in one Apple TV box. I present this not as a prediction for the way I think things will go, or even as they necessarily should go, but more of a thought experiment on how I can get everything I want from Apple TV — all the most-requested features — into one Apple TV box.
My one grounded-in-reality parameter will be to do this without throwing away the core vision of Apple TV as a bridge between your computer based content and your family room HDTV or completely outdating the existing Apple TV hardware (thus alienating the stalwart and loyal first-adopters like Your Friendly Neighborhood CouchGuy). We may go out on a few thin limbs for this, and I plan to maybe spend some of that surplus of money Apple has stored away (in pursuit of making them a heck of a lot more from selling the Ultimate Home Media Center) — but hey, that'll be good for our droopy economy anyway, right?
Hang on to your hats for a new vision of the Apple TV Plus, coming soon (yeah, right...).
I like a lot of Michael's Kahn's vision from the 9to5Mac article mentioned above. The whole thing meshes well with a lot of the things I've been saying here and elsewhere across the web about Apple TV. I particularly agree that Apple TV needs an iPhone-inspired App Store, and lots of games! I also agree that the current iPhone/iPod Touch Remote app needs expansion to make it a full-function remote control for all the Apple TV can do. These two steps alone would give a big boost to Apple TV sales.
I disagree with Michael on one point — Apple TV's movie rentals are not just a duplication of what is available through satellite/cable box movies-on-demand systems. First of all, one should be able to dispense with cable and satellite if one chooses and still enjoy the pay-as-you-go plans, obtaining content without old-fashioned sequential presentation formats like broadcast channels. I'm not saying that I'm giving up my cable any time soon, but I want the option, and Apple TV is a viable alternative. Plus, I've yet to see one of these on-demand setups that was half as easy and reliable as Apple TV. I have a cable-based DVR/on demand setup through my cable provider, and it can't hold a candle to Apple TV for ease of use, selection or instant response. I never use the on demand cable; I rent and buy video via iTunes and Apple TV frequently.
What we need is MORE movies and TV shows through Apple TV, not less. To get that, Apple will have to develop some serious penetration for the boxes into homes, and create the level of market domination in the video arena that iTunes developed with music. To do that we may have to spend some cash. Luckily, Apple is the one Silicon Valley player that still HAS cash.
First, Apple buys or partners with Boxee. (See my previous post for a little of what Boxee is and can do.) Apple TV gets an upgrade that mates Boxee's wider variety of supported video formats, connectivity to internet based content sources like Hulu.com, and social networking funs aspects to a slicker and less geeky Apple-supported user interface. iTunes remains the hub of your personal online media library, but it is made easier to connect iTunes and Apple TV with external drives (including ones plugged directly into the Apple TV itself and ones on your home wired or wireless network — more on that later) and internet-based streaming sources. This could be accomplished by giving Apple TV and iTunes a slick plug-in structure that makes it easy to extend the capabilities as new formats and sources become available. Would Apple have to buy Boxee to get this? No, they could develop it themselves. But that would take time. Making an implementation of Boxee on Apple TV official could be done tomorrow (or nearly so), and full integration with the Apple TV interface and iTunes could be done slowly over a number of upgrade cycles. They have money for the acquisition — why reinvent the wheel? Start developing more plugins to get more internet-based content to Apple TV connected screens.
Wait — won't Hulu.com and other internet based sources of content take the focus off of Apple's own iTunes Store video sales/rentals. Yes. And No. Yes, it will offer alternatives for content selection that sometimes compete directly. But no, most of the iTunes Store content is composed of TV shows you can own and new and blockbuster classic films you can own or rent. Let people view free where they can, rent what they want for one-shot viewing at their demand, and buy what they want to keep forever — as long as they do it all through lovely Apple TV hardware and maintain an irresistibly easy-to-browse connection to the iTunes Store, where it is all so very easy to spend money. Make it oh-so-easy to get whatever you want — as long as you own an Apple product to view it all with, whether that be an iMac on your desk, a MacBook at school, an iPhone or iPod Touch in your pocket, or an Apple TV in the family room. Slide all your media easily between all of these Apple products, so that your media goes wherever you go. More content means more hardware sales, whether it is content you sell or rent or bring in from free web-based sources doesn't really matter. If the whole of video and audio becomes synonymous with "Apple TV" as much as it is with "iPod", Apple won't need to care who provides the content. People can buy digital music lots of places, but they still, in overwhelming numbers, prefer to buy iPods. Amazon sells songs cheaper than the iTunes Store, and you can use them just as easily on our iPod — but the iTunes Store still sells far, far more tracks than Amazon.
Second, buy or partner with elgato to obtain EyeTV software and an associated USB plug-in DVR unit designed to run right in your Apple TV menu. Again, Apple would be able to develop this themselves, but why delay? Buy it now, integrate it over time. More content, funneled through iTunes and Apple TV to make them even more indispensable.
Huh? Oh, yes, I know I have said many times that Apple TV doesn't need to be a DVR. The existing unit is not a DVR, and future units should keep a base model that is pretty much what Apple TV is now — a bridge to computer-based and internet-based content. But expanded units and expansion add-ons for Apple TV could serve a lot of more specialized purposes. For those that really MUST have a DVR and/or a DVD player (or, yes, a Blu-Ray player) as part of the Apple TV, offer it as an expanded unit, or an expansion chassis you stack and connect with the base Apple TV. This makes adding the hardware features you want easy — and incremental for those who don't want to give up existing equipment or go all out Apple all at once.
Step One could be an add-on set of products for the existing Apple TV, including a DVD player or Blu-Ray unit, an EyeTV digital tuner/DVR stick, a set of wireless game controllers, a minikeyboard and maybe a big external library drive with easy Time Machine-like backup capabilities. Hook them all up at once by putting a small USB hub into the existing Apple TV USB port. This could be done within the next model year, probably no later than nine months from today. Step Two would be an add-on chassis that added hub, Blu-Ray player, DVR, wireless game controllers, minikeyboard and big library drive all at once, stacking prettily under the base unit. You could have that six months later, tops.
But we still need more content and more revenue streams. Let's have Apple buy or partner with Netflix. (What, again with the Netflix, CouchGuy? Yes, good ideas don't die — they just adapt to changing market conditions.) One quick plug-in later Apple TV streams Netflix internet-based content and controls your Netflix physical DVD rental queue, integrating with the Boxee-acquired social networking and reviewing aspects. HUGE content boost. Acquire Netflix and Apple makes money whether you get your content as mailed physical DVDs and streaming video a la Netflix or rental and purchased digital files via iTunes. Sell it all, any way the user wants it. As long as they get it through Apple hardware, who cares?
OK, now the Apple TV is just about unbeatable. No other device could come close to offering so much variety of content in one box. You would no sooner do without one of these than you would do without an iPod.
Now what would you pay?





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